ALS signed “G. Bernard Shaw,” on a 3.25 x 4.5 personal postcard, March 17, 1930. Letter to Frederick Wile, Jr., in which Shaw predicts the outcome of the London Naval Conference, which would end the following month. In full: “On reflection I think I had better hold my tongue about the Conference. It is now clear that it will end in a Three Power Pact (England, U.S. & Japan); and I see no good in spreading that fact more emphatically than the papers will. So for the present my broadcast is off.” The reverse side is addressed in Shaw’s hand, with a later blue notation in an unknown hand underneath which reads, “Bernard Shaw predicts outcome of Naval Conference.” In very good condition, with mild block of toning over text and signature, paperclip impression to lower left over last two words of text, and mounting remnants to address side.
Shaw’s prediction here that the 1930 conference would “end in a Three Power Pact” was nearly right on the money. The resulting London Naval Treaty between the US, United Kingdom, Japan, France, and Italy—signed on April 22, 1930—regulated submarine warfare and limited naval shipbuilding. Ratifications were exchanged in London on October 27, 1930, and the treaty went into effect on the same day. The iconic dramatist was also an avid socialist and accomplished orator who attempted to further the party’s causes. Among his avenues were radio talks on various topics—and a month earlier had used that venue to criticize the meetings, maintaining that ‘the only thing which will come out of the naval conference is a treaty permitting the American and British navies to fight fifteen miles instead of twenty miles apart.’ His comments garnered a lot of attention, leading him in this letter to “hold my tongue about the Conference” and avoid any other public comment. Pre-certified PSA/DNA and RR Auction COA.
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